TobeRobert

Tobe's reverse enforgement method

7 posts in this topic

So... this has been a guild secret for over 2 years now. Generally speaking, it has served us well. But I feel it is time to give it away to anybody left who could benefit from it. It is a procedure for increasing the odds of a successful forge or enhancement. It has held true and can nearly allow one to predict with certainty that a mythic forge or enhancement will succeed or fail. The one big exception is my Bane. I am now convinced, that the game can't handle my Bane if he gets any more OP. B|

Anyways, hope it serves well for anybody left in this game. Enjoy.

"For all of the people who have recently joined:
     First of all welcome. Glad to have you. Now that is out of the way, I would like to share with you a technique that a few of us have been developing to increase the success rate of forging and enhancements. We loosely refer to it as the reverse forge method. Perhaps it should be the reverse enforgement method. Whatever....
     The idea is essentially to do your forges or enhancements in reverse order of chance for success. For example, if you were to auto fill 5 things to forge, it would start with common stuff at 100% success rate. Then onto Fine stuff at 50%, rare stuff at 45%, and so on. The higher the order the lower the chance of success. This also applies to enhancements. The more stars you want the lower is the success rate. We want to raise the actual success rate.
     To do this, we need to determine what variables are used to calculate actual probabilities of success. Yes, the success rate is included, but there are others. So far, it appears the only other variables are time and prior success/ failure ratio. Lets talk about the time.
     This variable has undoubtedly changed since the server merging. It used to fade out the weight of prior successes and failures over 12 hrs. It now appears to have a hard reset every 24 hrs. Near as I can tell, that reset occurs at 3pm Server time (Ghostwood is same as EST). This has not been completely confirmed yet. I have personally had a couple of WTF moments, but generally speaking, it is mostly correct.
     The other variable is past success/ fail ratio. Lets go back to the autofill example. Lets say you autofill with commons and forge 3 times. The success rate is 100% so you end up with 3 fine things. Add those to the 2 fines that you already had, and you are ready to forge a rare thing at 50%. Except that it wont be 50% anymore. The 3 prior forges are calculated into a bigger probability formula by the good folk down at EA. You would be guaranteed to fail. Go on and try it right now; you know that this has happened many times to you.
     However, if you were to wait for 24 hrs, it would be successful. And by then, you would have another handful of commons to forge immediately after. This is where the reverse order comes from. Start with the least likely forgings and enhancements. Then do all with a 100% success rate. You end up beating the odds, literally. Mon thru Fri forge an epic then all commons or fines. Sat, forge a mythic, and then all the commons or fines. What ever the highest order of stuff you can forge and then commons. Do not expect to forge a mythic and then be able to forge an epic. You would have already thrown off the probabilities for the epic into negative territory. You must be patient.
     Crafting is also calculated in the probabilities. Just put crafting last in order like the commons; it is a forge at 100%.  And one last consideration, the success/fail ratio over the last 24 hrs seem to affect both forging and enhancements. Meaning that the 3 fine forges you just did at 100% will tank the 3rd mythic gem you want to enhance with at 50%. They cross over. They do not.
     These are based on observations and note taking, and they have changed since the server merge. But bottom line is, if I can compile the stats of many forge and enhance attempts, we can nail it down solid. If you can help, you can PM me with the info. I will need to know time of the attempt/s, successes or fails, length of time since last forge and enhance attempt, and the displayed success rate of each attempt.
     With enough participation, this can propel the whole guild with out spending alot of money like some other guilds. So help out by taking notes."

Follow up comments: Reading this again after a long time, I should probably change the 24-48 hr reset. It has been determined that the probabilities of a successful forge or enhancement gradually rise over at least a month for mythic. For this reason, I have intentionally failed a couple of lower class forges to boost the success probability for a mythic. I have had much success with this as well.

Another tactic is to build up half dozen items to 4-star. Them attempt to enhance to 5-star on each one until it is successful. You will be successful after 3-5 attempts. In the meantime, you will have received 7 fragments for each fail, so another, free 5-star should be close at hand. =D

Conclusion: As with anything in life, you will know when you are pushing your luck. And as bad as you want 5-star on your Panto's huntbow, you know damn well it's going to fail. Patience is required by design in the game. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yet, you have one (1) or two (2)  five star items.  L    O    L

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Phamtastik should give us better insight on this, but I seriously doubt that he will. 

Why help the "competition"..... Or should I say what competition.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Break said:

Phamtastik should give us better insight on this, but I seriously doubt that he will. 

Why help the "competition"..... Or should I say what competition.....

Exactly why I posted it. I believe @PHaMTaSTiK has probably seen this before as a long time guildie of mine (Alpha/Omega) was also a guildie of his. 

@Break I have (1) 5-star item. As long as I have 3-star items, I continue to make them all 4-star before attempting 5-star. My Rasha has a 5-star Pantos Huntbow, and all other gear is 4-star. My Hibe has all 4-star. As for the other 9 heroes I work on, they all have a combo of 3 or 4-star mythic gear set pieces. My Rasha can sometimes break 400k in 1 hit on the Boss. ;) She turns me on too when she does this. Jajaja

Let me know how the method works for you. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh come on. Everyone have 4 star items. 

Where is your proof of 5 star thing if you have only one 5 star item? I see your badge sign in is alot of days and yet only one 5 star item. Smells like bs. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

 

Don't get me wrong, glad you try to help others. It is just that I don't see any proof of it on your gear. So until you make at least 10 - 15  5 star items, no reason someone should believe this

Edited by Break

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, Break said:

 

Don't get me wrong, glad you try to help others. It is just that I don't see any proof of it on your gear. So until you make at least 10 - 15  5 star items, no reason someone should believe this

Ok. Suit yourself.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now